For years it has been predicted that a real estate bubble will burst.
The forecast of the IW Cologne Economic Institute now goes in a completely opposite direction. In a new study, the Economic Institute IW Cologne comes to a different conclusion: “Property owners do not need to worry”.
The scientists come to the conclusion that real estate prices are unlikely to fall, or only slightly, due to the Corona crisis. “The residential real estate market will come through the current crisis relatively well”,
Rents and property prices have reached record levels. Housing shortage, even housing shortage prevails in many large cities.
How much the real estate market suffers from the virus crisis depends on the future economic development. If the economy suffers, so does the real estate market.
Interest rates are likely to fall further in the coming years. This is likely to result in prices remaining the same or falling slightly.
Although Corona has not reversed the already slowed down real estate rally, it has further weakened it. Short-time work and impending insolvencies are leading to a reluctance to invest. With the easing or even lifting of restrictions comes planning security and investment behaviour will normalise again, also in the real estate market.
There has been little change in the reasons that have led to rising property prices in Germany. Housing remains a scarce commodity, especially in large cities. There is far too little construction. Given the continuing zero interest rate, investors lack alternatives to real estate. The volatile stock markets are no alternative for security-oriented investors.
Thus the experts conclude that there is no real estate bubble in Germany. Neither have apartments been built in excess of demand in recent years, nor are the costs for tenants and owner-occupiers out of all proportion. These would be the typical signs of a real estate bubble.